If you think this presidential election is a laydown, think again.
Yes, Senator Obama has gained in national polls, giving the impression of (ironically) a surge, but those numbers are functionally meaningless. After all, if Obama gains 5% nationally by increasing the percent of voters for him in states that are already solidly blue, it's the same as NO gain on the electoral college map. (In fact, we'd all do well ignoring national polls in favor of state-by-state polls that show the current electoral college outcome).
While Obama still has sufficient numbers on a state-by-state basis for an electoral college victory, McCain has gained support in five battlegrounds (Virginia, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire) and reclaimed Indiana, according to pollster John Zogby.
Zogby's new numbers have McCain-Palin at 52.8% to Obama-Biden's 42.3%. Five percent are undecided. Zogby notes that despite a big lead among independent voters, "Obama appears unable to overcome the Republican enrollment advantage.
Obama's rally and his new commercial on education could not come at a better time.