Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Obama Sees Indiana again

If you think this presidential election is a laydown, think again.

Yes, Senator Obama has gained in national polls, giving the impression of (ironically) a surge, but those numbers are functionally meaningless. After all, if Obama gains 5% nationally by increasing the percent of voters for him in states that are already solidly blue, it's the same as NO gain on the electoral college map. (In fact, we'd all do well ignoring national polls in favor of state-by-state polls that show the current electoral college outcome).

While Obama still has sufficient numbers on a state-by-state basis for an electoral college victory, McCain has gained support in five battlegrounds (Virginia, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire) and reclaimed Indiana, according to pollster John Zogby.

Zogby's new numbers have McCain-Palin at 52.8% to Obama-Biden's 42.3%. Five percent are undecided. Zogby notes that despite a big lead among independent voters, "Obama appears unable to overcome the Republican enrollment advantage.

Obama's rally and his new commercial on education could not come at a better time.



Anonymous said...

My question is why specifically, has the McCain-Palin ticket taken such leads in Missouri, New Mexico and Nevada? Virginia has always been an iffy for Obama since Southern roots still run deep (fill in the blank). New Hampshire? I don't think Obama ever did have New Hampshire and one only neds to look at pre-primary numbers there when all polls showed a commanding lead for Obama only to be drubbed when the final vote came in. The grand, so-called liberal state of New Hampshire in my opinion, voted on race when the got inside the voting booth favoring Hillary.
Don't kid yourself, race IS a factor in this election and what white voters may say to a pollster is not necessarily an indication of how they will vote once in the voting booth.
For Obama to pull this off he needs 10 to 11% poll leads in these battleground states.
Many white voters are NOT so much pro McCain-Palin and abhore the idea of another 8 years of Bush policy but given the choice between that and voting for a black man they'll take the white guy. Sad but true.
The extensive poll data collected by a team from Stanford about a month ago showed that race WILL be a deciding factor in how this presidential election turns out.
Obama cannot spend enough money to turn himself into a white guy and sadly, that is precisely what he would need to do to win.

Anonymous said...


That's a Zogby Interactive Poll, traditionally its accuracy is questionable based on its methodology. A better gauge might be the Public Policy Polling poll from over the weekend that put Obama up 2 (48-46), JLT down 21 (57-36), Linda Pence up 3 (42-39), and Dick Wood down 2 (38-36). PPP uses RV random samples, a statistically better model based on history than Zogby.

While I agree that Senator Obama has a long way to go, Indiana is indeed in-play, but not because of Democratic turnout, but because of Obama-Daniels voters that would be Random Republican-Daniels voters had McCain not picked Sarah Palin. Mitch Daniels isn't a Bibliot Republican, he's a moderate Republican who is 1) hard to impossible to beat in Indiana and 2) well liked by the moderate Republicans in Washington Township as well as the donut.

Those Washington Township and Donut voters are what will make Obama competitive here.

Long night in 12 days.

Anonymous said...

8:43 (I forgot to mention one thing)

The two best aggregators of state-level polling data (Real Clear Politics, an old stalwart and FiveThirtyEight.Com, a new upstart) have a different take:

RCP: Indiana McCain +0.6
FiveThirtyEight: McCain +1.6

FWIW, FiveThirtyEight also details what's called Pollster Induced Error (PIE). The average pollster has a pie of 1.97. Zogby Interactive has a pie of 5.73

Anonymous said...

GO DEMOCRATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!