Wednesday, May 7, 2008

And Now the Piece De Resistance....the 7th Heaven!

Andre Carson lived up to his old hip hop nom de plume. He was a juggernaut on election day.

In A PRIMARY, he actually added 20,000 votes to his special election total. That is MAJOR.

On April 29, I bet Brian Howey a steak dinner that his poll showing Carson with 45% to Woody Myers 28% was way wrong. Carson crushed those numbers. But before you say how wrong I was (man, was I wrong on Carson), remember that I subsequently talked about the David O. negative ad that popped up in the last week. David O. loaned his campaign money to make sure it saw daylight. That ad went after Woody O. for speaking out against the Patient's Bill of Rights. You can't do that and survive in a Democratic primary. That's about as popular now as working for an oil company.

While I thought the ad would nudge David O's numbers up a bit, it didn't. Instead, it seemed to chisel a small chunk off of Myers that went to Carson, securing his overwhelming victory.

Also, while Carson ratcheted up the campaign measurably in the last three weeks (timely press releases every single day and non-stop GOTV groundwork), you can't underestimate the Obama effect. While many people stated that the Republican cross-over would bode poorly for Carson (the thinking being people that R's who hated Julia would scratch Obama but not Andre), I think the newly registered voters without the "party history" were not as informed about the race. They had seen some ads but were still unsure, and that is a ripe situation for an endorsement from someone who brought you into the process. Obama took Marion County 2-1, and Carson's folks were out in droves at the polls handing out "Obama Endorses Carson" fliers.

Also, as I've said before, when you're not sure who to vote for, it's human nature to stick with the brand you know, and for a broad cross-section of Indiananpolis Democrats, "Carson" is the unshakeable brand.

The Congressman gave a spirited victory speech in which he asked the folks who worked with the other campaigns to "come home." Expect to see a lot of prodigal sons now.

Carson will be our Congressman until he either has a major scandal or until he retires and hands the mantle over to his own family. A word of advice to the Congressman….when you're winding down in the last 6 years or so, tell your son/daughter so (s)he can start serving and avoid being labeled "unqualified."

(As I think about it, I also said that the polling showing JLT with an 18% lead was wrong, and it WAS clearly flawed. So I'm 50/50. Maybe now all I owe Howey is a chicken dinner).


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6 comments:

varangianguard said...

Chicken? I would have thought you might have suggested waffles.

iPOPA said...

Even better! It would be like Roscoe's in L.A....chicken AND waffles.

Anonymous said...

So, will Carson now drop the dreaded DCCC staff? I sure hope so. They don't care a damn about our community and pissed off a bunch of people in the process.

Anonymous said...

I dont know about the dreaded DCCC staff people pissing off anyone but I know that they sure got the job done. Instead of looking at Andre's victory as a result of someone else's shortcomings, we should look at it as Andre being in touch with his district and the continued great service that his grandmother provided. He gave a wonderful speech the night before the election to 25,000 people at the Obama rally. He gives people a reason to vote for him. Others just try to tear down and try to give you reasons not to vote for someone. Keep up the good work, Andre

varangianguard said...

If you're going to be a fan, it's polite to correctly spell the Congressman's name.

André.

Laziness is not a valid excuse, either.

artfuggins said...

I am a fan but I dont know how to put the accent mark over the e..perhaps you could educate me on that.