iPOPA's Week in Review

Sorry to be a bit dormant this past week. Sometimes it’s "so many stories, so little time." Here’s your week in review with my quick “hits” plus a follow up on Vop Osili and "name combat."

Hawaii Special Election Victory Meaningless for GOP
Republican Charles Dijou won a three-way, Hawaiin special election for U.S. Congress against two Democrats. Dijou’s “victory” with forty percent of the vote was not surprising. The surprising part was RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s statement that the victory was significant because it was the “district where the President of the United States was born.” (Shhh! Don’t say that too loud, Mike. You might get ousted by the staggering percent of Republicans who still think the President wasn’t born in America!) Stelle undoubtedly wanted to add significance while he could since he knows they'll give this back in November, provided one of the D's clears the field.

Souder Said What?!?
Maybe I’m just burned out on politicians who lecture on morality while living below their own standards, but Mark Souder’s comments today don’t sit well with me at all. We all sin. But what galls is the idea he actually thought about sticking it out because “there was no evidence of an affair.” To know you're betraying the very ideals you claim to serve while clinging to the right to stay? That’s the greatest arrogance in this sordid affair.

GOP's Rivera Keeps Good Company
If anybody thinks the Democratic Party is not open to all comers, look at this photo of Republican, At-Large City-County Councillor (and generally amiable guy), Angel Rivera, at the Indiana Latino Democratic Pac’s Cinco De Maya membership drive. Inquiring minds want to know - did he cut a check?!?!

iPOPA Revisits "Name Combat" and Vop
Sometimes I revisit analysis after feedback from fellow politicos, friends, and fans. Today is one of those days. I’ve written about name combat, and I noted that candidates with “foreign” sounding names almost always fare poorly. But I also wrote that Vop Osili, whose name is nowhere near “Jim Smith,” would assist our party more than Tom McKenna as our Secretary of State candidate. Many have wondered about this seemingly contradictory conclusion. McKenna would clearly outperform Osili in name combat, right?

Absolutely, statewide. But here's the part that might depress you, Democrats, so I left it out. I'm not overly optimistic that either Tom or Vop can win in November. Indiana is still a Republican state, chocked full of what I call open-minded, Republican leaners (insert your joke here, Democrats). And the further you go down the ballot, the harder it is for a Democrat to win, absent staggering fundraising advantages or a very feeble Republican opponent.

To illustrate the point, consider this. Indiana hasn't seen a Democratic Secretary of State since Joe Hogsett left in 1994, an Auditor since Otis Cox in 1986, a Treasurer since Jack New left in February of 1979, and a Superintendent of Public Instruction since 1973! Democrats have done best electing Attorneys General with Pam Carter in 1992 and Jeff Modisett in 1996, but both of those campaigns lucked out to a degree in having opponents with some deficiencies Democrats exploited to draw stark contrasts.

Pam Carter had done securities enforcement, which we pitched as "white collar crime prosecution," and she was running against a criminal defense attorney, Tim Bookwalter, who had defended "rapists," "molesters," and "drug dealers." Jeff Modisett had been Marion County prosecutor while his opponent, Steve Carter, suffered from a charisma deficit and had never tried a case. "Not one." Does an AG try cases? Of course not. But this is politics, folks. Perception IS political reality.

Even Hogsett's 1990 Secretary of State win was unique because he was running against Bill Hudgnut, the Mayor of Indianapolis, the most despised city in the state for everybody who doesn't live here, and Hogsett branded Hudnut as a guy who "raised taxes 27 times." Plus, Hogsett harnessed the Evan Bayh mojo to raise over a million dollars. This year, we have my Wabash classmate, Charlie White, running as the Republican. (Could his name literally get any more vanilla for name combat purposes?) White's springboard to statewide office is his service on the Fishers Town Council. Unless there's some astonishing opposition research of which I'm not aware showing White has voted to raise some town tax over and over, this race will be very difficult.

If you start from the perspective that neither guy is likely to eke out a victory (and trust me when I tell you, I hope I'm wrong), all that's left is the question of who can do the most for the rest of the ticket. Because many African-Americans are dedicated, straight-ticket voters, that will be Vop. To do the most for the party, Vop doesn't even have to compete everywhere. He just has to drive up D turnout in high African-American areas. His core market will be people who might not vote but for their chance to elect Indiana's first African-American Secretary of State and maybe Governor.

One colleague said that any benefit from Vop on the ticket would be cumulative because in many places with high African-American populations, you already have other African-American candidates, for example, like in Indianapolis with Andre Carson. I disagree somewhat with respect to Carson. There's no doubt his a vote-getter, but his district only touches 445 of the 590 precincts that comprise Marion County. With respect to everywhere else, outside of Indianapolis, any African-American candidate would be down ticket, and they are not likely to have the money to afford the high media exposure that will motivate voters.

Is Vop a lost cause? Absolutely not. But to win, he would need to raise at least $1.5-$2 million to do a solid statewide TV buy, and he'd have to have an absolutely captivating bio ad. That's the counter to name combat deficiencies - favorable name ID (a/k/a "personal likeability"). If people know and like you, the name won't matter. The problem is that too many politicians with "funny" names never get to that level of recognition. Also, Vop would need to outspend White, and he'd need a scorched earth negative to blast a hole in White. While White's fundraising has been lackluster ($39,500 cash-on-hand as of March 31), Vop hasn't been on a million-dollar pace ($68,000 cash-on-hand on March 31 to McKenna's $96,000).

If Vop wins at the state convention, money will shake free as all the "smart money" people can quit hedging their bets and grow spines, but $1.5 million worth? That's a tall order. (Yes, it will take that much. Remember that Linda Pence raised a cool million and still lost to Greg Zoeller in 2008, which was clearly a favorable Democratic year). What is more likely is Vop having money in a range that makes media geared toward drumming up turnout more sensible than for persuasion.

On the subject of name combat, I knew Una Osili had finished 4th of 8 in her state convention delegate race, and every "African" name fared poorly (look here at state convention races), even in Marion County.

But I wondered how a "McKenna" might do in "name combat." The results from Hamilton County were encouraging...for Mary Ann McKenna. For Tom, not so much.

Take a look at this astonishing result for at-large Hamilton County state convention delegate, and see if you notice any of iPOPA's "name combat" rules in play.

3097 - 9.36% - Mary Ann Mckenna
2963 - 8.95% - Nancy Funk
2876 - 8.69% - Trish Whitcomb
2869 - 8.67% - Janet Rummel
2725 - 8.23% - Bonnie J. Kennelly
2681 - 8.10% - Rita D. Richard
2527 - 7.63% - Christopher A. Brown
2428 - 7.33% - Christian K. Renner
2344 - 7.08% - William A. "Bill" Latham
2289 - 6.91% - Alan D. Albright
2125 - 6.42% - Keith Clock
2092 - 6.32% - James Steven Bohner
2089 - 6.31% - David Snead

Did everyone pick up that the first six candidates are all women, and the last seven are all men?

Then I turned to Tom McKenna's race for state convention delegate, and, in a word, "Ouch."

1141 - 6.54% - Judy S. Goldblatt
1126 - 6.46% - Josephine E. "Jo" Latham
1118 - 6.41% - Mary Russell
1111 - 6.37% - Kathryn M. Raymore
1070 - 6.16% - Felicia D. Brown
1068 - 6.12% - Sonya P. Wendel
1062 - 6.09% - Caitlin C. Intermill
1047 - 6.00% - Monique D. Wise
1018 - 5.84% - Deborah Hejl
1015 - 5.82% - Tom Mckenna
907 - 5.20% - Patricia M. Toschlog
814 - 4.67% - Henry Winckler
803 - 4.60% - Cary A. Hudson
786 - 4.51% - Keith D. Boland
702 - 4.03% - Douglas M. Kinser
698 - 4.00% - Myron K. Richardson
674 - 3.87% - James W. Rosensteele
654 - 3.75% - Tom Decoster
620 - 3.56% - Edwin E. Russell

Tom McKenna, who has been telling Democrats he will beat Charlie White in the home county they share, finished tenth in a nineteen-person field of Democrats. You may say, "Yes, but isn't that just name combat being true to form, iPOPA? After all, unless Cary Hudson is a woman, you again have ladies in the top nine slots, then Tom, then another woman, followed by the rest of the fellas in the basement." But familiarity and likeability are supposed to trump name combat, which should tell us all something about McKenna's name ID in Hamilton County because there's no question about McKenna's likeability.

In short, I stand by my initial analysis: two likeable guys, two strenuous roads ahead.

iPOPA's Week in Review

The Good Pence

I can't foretell whether Linda Pence will be our next Attorney General, but if she loses, I'll never be convinced that the best person won. EVER.

Listen to Pence's critics, and you hear things like:

(1) "she is overzealous"
(2) "she is trying to run a prosecutor's race"
(3) "she's arrogant, and she thinks she's the smartest lawyer in the room," or
(4) "she won't go after corruption in Lake County."

To retort in order...

(1) having an AG who is overzealous is the best thing for Hoosiers. What is wrong with someone who will target those who target us through crime, consumer fraud, professional misconduct, and frivolous personal injury lawsuits filed against state employees and facilities? Anybody who has ever hired a lawyer knows that, as long as the lawyer's actions do not violate the rules of professional conduct, there is no such thing as an "overzealous lawyer."

(2) This segues nicely into the "prosecutor" issue. Among Pence's notable proposals are her desire to combat the methamphetamine epidemic, go after sex offenders, and independently investigate child fatalities, instead of relying on the Indiana Department of Child Services to police itself. These are all great ideas, but people say Pence shouldn't be acting like a super-prosecutor or....what's the word....solicitor general. My retort is, "Why not?" She is not talking about usurping anybody's role. She is talking about, for the first time in Indiana history, having someone who can coordinate crime strategy for the state from a prosecutorial angle. How is that a bad thing?

People who think this is overstepping don't know that history of the office. When Jeff Modisett was Attorney General, his office had a "death team," which would work with prosecutors on both initial death penalty prosecutions and petitions for capital post-conviction relief filed by inmates on death row. We went where help was requested, and it was FREQUENTLY requested.

(3) Ummmm....in 95-99% of the cases, when Linda Pence is in a room full of lawyers, she IS the smartest lawyer in the room. And do we really want one who has NEVER actually practiced law? I think back to when AGs all across the country went after big tobacco, and how these AGs' states had to pay a LOT to big law firms. Can you imagine how much would have been collectively saved had Linda Pence been in position to coordinate the effort under the aegis of the National Association of Attorneys General?

(4) A smart lawyer gunning for a superprosecutor image knows you MAKE a huge reputation on corruption. For every insider D she might alienate, she would pick up four R votes around the state for not flinching. Many have suggested that Pence's comment that she would "review all ongoing investigations" before committing to continuing them all meant she would pull the plug. No, no, no. She'll check the file first, which is prudent practice. And if grounds existed to move forward, she'd break a foot off in whoever's (expletive) needed it for justice to be done.

But the truth is, even if Linda Pence had NO new ideas for the office, you'll notice that NOBODY, and I mean NOBODY has said Greg Zoeller is a better lawyer than Linda Pence. Because they can't. They just can't.

The Good Pence

O'Connor Has Left the Building!

In today’s Indianapolis Star, Matt Tully provides a balanced perspective on Mike O’Connor’s term as chair of the Marion County Democratic Party. Many want to hang O'Connor in effigy. In every venture, be it athletics, business, or politics, the “leader of the team” often gets too much criticism or credit for what is essentially a team game.

In the interest of full disclosure, Mike O’Connor is an affable fellow, who I’ve always liked personally. I have no interest in hearing people tear him for things he could not control. Once you’ve been a campaign manager, you know that the role does not convey the ability to make a candidate do something uncomfortable to him or her. But having said this, O’Connor was involved in several disastrous tactical decisions that spanned two campaigns.

First, he made a horrific call by signing off on the Melina Kennedy’s candidacy for Marion County prosecutor. As IPOPA stated previously, Kennedy was handicapped by a complete lack of prosecutorial experience.

Let’s be clear on something. The Marion County Prosecutor is mostly a manager. Unlike in smaller counties where the prosecutor actually tries cases, in Marion County, the prosecutor recruits talent, sets office policies, administers a budget, helps coordinate anti-crime policy for the city, and occasionally plays Jack McCoy on a lay-down trial so he can say, “I put (insert heartless killer’s name here) on death row” in a TV commercial in the next election cycle.

But the public can’t be sold on this idea; voters expect a trial lawyer. And without criminal law experience, Kennedy could not counter the preconceived notion, held still even by many women, that women are “soft on crime.”

Moreover, Republicans have an elephant as their mascot for a reason. They remember everything. In 1996, when Jeff Modisett was elected Attorney General over out-going Attorney General Steve Carter, we attacked Carter for never having prosecuted a case. “Not One.” That was the name of the ad put together by Christopher Klose, our campaign’s political consultant(and a guy O’Connor knew well from their mutual work with Joe Hogsett years earlier).

In candor, I can say I do not know an Attorney General who HAS personally prosecuted a case of any type, and yet, Carter’s lack of experience helped us defeat him. How surprising would it be that Republicans were lying in wait for Democrats to put up somebody without experience in a job where it would acyually matter. Not surprisingly, Brizzi’s attack ads basically mimicked “Not One.” We set the table for Republicans by selecting Kennedy as our candidate.

In addition, if you can get any Democrats to speak candidly, many will comment on Melina’s lack of “physical presence.” Ms. Kennedy came across as a confident speaker, but that confidence was somewhat belied by her physical bearing, which struck me as mousy at times. Also, the photographs on her billboard actually made her look somewhat sickly. I would have reworked those and had her work on posture and presence.

But the coup de grace that really doomed Kennedy was….say it together everyone – GANG AMNESTY!” I’ll never forget reading Kennedy’s plan a few days after it was released and getting to that dreaded proposal. I called a high-ranking Democrat in Mayor Peterson’s administration and said, “We just lost the prosecutor’s race.” I knew Republicans would find and exploit this proposal.

It could have been the single greatest law enforcement strategy in history, but it wouldn’t matter. “Amnesty” means ONLY forgiveness in the public mind. Mitch Daniels engineered taxpayer amnesty, and everybody loved him for it. It brought in tons of money, just like Kennedy’s plan might have arguably given law enforcement tons of leads. But Daniels wasn’t a woman running for prosecutor, and nobody finds people who skirt paying state taxes terrifying enough to make bad Sean Penn movies (Colors) about them.

I don’t understand how that proposal saw daylight. In every campaign, there has to be somebody (usually the manager) whose job is to be the “(excrement) catcher.” That person’s critical function is to make sure nothing idiotic leaves the building. If that person is doing his/her job, every statement and proposal is subjected to a mental review process during which “the catcher” attempts to figure out how the other side can turn the idea on its head. On gang amnesty, somebody fell down on the job, and when they did, Melina Kennedy couldn’t get up.

As Jon Easter properly noted in a comment on this blog, Brizzi and the Republican Party put heavy bank into this race and outspent Kennedy because it was (at least then) thought to be the setting sun for the R’s. Easter is right, but TV ads don’t move numbers without something compelling to say. We wrote their script.

Still to come…

…O’Connor’s Mayoral Mishaps

…How Pam Carter Got It Right in 1992

…The Great News for Melina Kennedy

…Who Looks Good as Your Next Prosecutor

and

…An intriguing experiment to help you determine whether you hate black people as much as George Bush

Stay tuned!!!

O'Connor Has Left the Building!