David O(ver) Running; Massa Definitely In!

David Orentlicher has withdrawn his candidacy to be Marion County Prosecutor and endorsed fellow contender and frontrunner Terry Curry. On the GOP side, Mark Massa is definitely running.

Getting out of the race was a smart move for David O., as his candidacy hinged on convincing the electorate that the office is a policy center for crime prevention, not just a law enforcement arm intent on bustin' heads.

The problem is that the general public doesn't look to their prosecutors primarily for programs. The "policy" approach has been tried by candidates with limited criminal prosecution experience in the past, and it always fails if the opponent has it. The same applies when candidates try to argue that the office is about being a good manager. Sorry, but Hoosier voters want a Jack McCoy, not a pontificating (and always seated) Adam Schiff.

The fact Republicans had no candidate for some moments created some intrigue because if the policy argument would ever work it would be where a D-leaning county's D candidate was running against a weak or GOP opponent. David O. certainly showed he had friends who would dig deep to help him.

Of course, a GOP weakling is not what we have now. Mark Massa will be formidable, and the Governor will make sure he has money. Word on the street was that Massa was very reluctant, but he won't tell the Governor no.

I would have loved to be a fly on the world. If you were a Governor worried about a Democrat getting into your business before you go national, what might you offer a guy to get him to run for prosecutor to protect your flank? Can you envision a conversation about U.S. attorney if that Governor became GOP chair or (Lord help us all) President? What about an Assistant A.G. post? Or maybe an even higher number of boards to serve on to rake in dough for little work. Maybe all of it.

Massa will be formidable, and all Democrats owe David O. for not taking this one to the tape. Next time you see him, give him a pat on the back for putting party first. Also, ask him if he minds sharing say, oh, $180,000 with Curry or the Marion County Democratic Party. Now that would really be putting party first.

David O(ver) Running; Massa Definitely In!

OBAMA TO STOP THE DRAMA...DAVID O. SAYS NO!

Rumors are like tumors ...they WILL grow until detected and treated. Sometimes they're benign, sometimes they're malignant but treatable, and sometimes you're just too late. They kill you.

Barack (Barry) Hussein (Muhammad) Obama (Dunham), a life-long Christian (former Muslim), born in Hawaii (outside the U.S. with no birth certificate), who was sworn in on his family's Bible (the Koran), has finally realized, no doubt from his education at a diverse (radical Islamic massadah) grade school, that he and his lovely (anti-Whitey speech giving) wife, Michelle, can be as patriotic (refuse to say the pledge or wear American flag lapel pins) and upstanding (snort cocaine before gay sex) as possible, but they'll get no peace against internet rumors that go "viral" unless they crush them, preferrably by touching their fists together (a/k/a "a terrorist fist jab").

(Use "The Google," as John McCain might say, and you will see how Obama has been subjected to an avalanche of allegations that would be defamatory were he not a candidate).

Karen Tumulty at Time reports that Obama ushered in a new style of answering rumors by creating http://www.fightthesmears.com/. The website features video clips and stories that counter the scurrilousness noted above.

In my opinion, this is (a) genius and (b) long overdue. The Internet is a mixed blessing. It provides easy access to a staggering wealth of information AND misinformation.

And, unlike "the old days" when you had to at least pay for copying scandalous fliers and you could get your @ss kicked for passing them out, a negative chain e-mail COSTS NOTHING to distribute, and it requires acumen most don't have to to track its source. The "cost" of disseminating bogus info is negligible.

This makes the cost-benefit calculus of "do it/don't do it" pretty easy if it works.

On that score, ask yourself how many e-mails you have received that claim Microsoft will pay you $500 for forwarding that same e-mail?

How many of you men have received a chain e-mail warning not to have drinks with an attractive woman or you'll end up in a bath tub full of ice with "Call 9-1-1" on your chest...only to discover after examination that you have stitches on your back because you were drugged before one of your kidneys was harvested for apparent sell on the black market?

Absurdities like this STILL circulate, though admittedly not as much. The decline is attribuate to "clearinghouse" websites, such as http://www.snopes.com/, that debunk all urban legends.

Stopthesmears is Obama's Snopes, and if he had made this available earlier, he would be up 15 points now on McCain instead of 7 because he would have staved off rumors that helped make legitimate stories seem bigger than they were.

Rumors are most effective when they plays into the voter's worldview. After all, if the man refuses to wear a flag on his lapel, and you're a flag-burning amendment proponent, why would you believe Obama when he says he doesn't share Reverend Wright's dismal view of America? Or let's say you're somewhat suspicious of Muslims. If somebody tells you Obama was sworn in on the Koran, and you're only semi-attuned to politics, how likely are you to actually investigate independently to see if it is true? I'd say even money at best. You see, some Americans are so excited about sharing something titilating with their friends, they certainly aren't going to let the facts get in the way of a good story. This applies to all ideologies, by the way.

Political rumor-mongering will also grow because, even when debunked, each rumor has a "shelf life." Unlike a flier that gets chucked in the trash, a rumor continues to be found at The Google until it so widely-debunked, that people will point and giggle (with emoticons) if you keep posting or IMing about it.

The rumor need not even be that effective to get the desired result. Hoosiers cast 1.27 million votes in the presidential Democratic primary, and the margin of victory for Hillary Clinton was 13,000. This means a rumor e-mail that makes 6,500 people (1 in 200) suspicious enough to NOT vote for Obama has just changed the primary outcome. (Maybe it already did???)

In honor of Obama's anti-rumor campaign, I want to put the final chemo treatment on a rumor I actually floated last week (shame on you, Ipopa!) about David O. supporters asking Ed Delaney to hand over his seat. I can now report that this is unequivocally false. Neither David O., nor anybody associated with David O. or the House Democratic Caucus has made this request of Ed Delaney, nor has Ed offered to step aside. David O. is comfortable being cheerleader for Ed Delaney's effort, and Ed is committed to winning his campaign.

See what happens when you actually investigate a story before you start churning it? You get THE TRUTH. That's as radical as Obama's grade school.

See how I got you on that one?!? IT'S NOT RADICAL AT ALL. Don't believe me?

http://www.fightthesmears.com/.

Mark it in your favorites next to Snopes...and help stop the madness.

OBAMA TO STOP THE DRAMA...DAVID O. SAYS NO!

Jon Elrod Abandons Ship?

Say it ain't so, Jo....n.

Sure, Bush's legacy in November will be as beneficial to downticket races as pizza at a Weight Watchers meeting, but I was floored to get wind of scuttlebutt that Jon Elrod, having lost to Andre Carson in the special election and seeing little hope of improving in November, is contemplating resigning his federal candidacy and jumping back into his old house district.

If he pops back into Indiana House District 97, Elrod would face Democrat Mary Ann Sullivan, who edged out city-county councilor Dane Mahern at the Marion County Democratic Party's slating convention.

The Republicans had none of that drama. In fact, nobody even filed a declaration of candidacy pre-primary. As a result, there is a candidate vacancy that must be filled by a Republican Party caucus. Ostensibly, the precinct committee persons covering HD 97 could appoint Jon Elrod, EXCEPT for one small detail. He can't run for congress and state representative at the same time, which is why David Orentlicher had to give up his state house seat. (More on that in a second).

Elrod is allegedly getting pressure from some Repubs to drop the lost cause congressional race and help the R's hold ground in the House by reclaiming a seat he won in a labor-intensive campaign against Democrat Ed Mahern in 2006.

While such a two-step of resigning the federal candidacy and getting appointed to fill the vacancy in his former seat seems completely legal by my cursory review of the election code, I'm skeptical it would be easy for Elrod to pull off politically. He basically told the folks in HD 97, "Your little pond is too small for me." I don't know how keen they'll be now to let him swim in it again just because he saw the piranhana that is the Carson machine coming at him in the congressional campaign stream.

This is a bi-partisan critique, by the way. There's a corresponding rumor that either Ed Delaney offered to withdraw his candidacy so David O. could take HIS seat back or that Delaney has been asked by some Democrats to do so. I find the former version highly suspect. Ed Delaney is no slouch, folks, and I seriously doubt he was running just because he thought it would be a fun thing to do. (I'll let you know when I sort this out).

In my opinion, the vanquished (or the "not even fully vanquished yet") shouldn't get to take their ball and run home. At least not until they regroup and come out swinging in the next election cycle.

Some may say, "What's the big deal? Presidential candidates all have other offices they hold, and they lose and go back without political fallout." First, there CAN be fallout if your state suffered a crises in your absence. Second, if there isn't fallout, it's because either:

(a) many people are wowed to see somebody from their home state playing on the national stage (Evan Bayh, for example...even as an Obama guy, seeing the Senator get national play was pretty sweet); and

(b) presidential candidacies are waged by people who gain FOR their constituents by having assembled national contacts. Hillary Clinton will have more political resources now as a Senator than she ever had before this campaign. That will make her more formidable in the Senate, and every one of her constituents will benefit.

In contrast, what can Jon Elrod say he got for HD 97 by virtue of running....er....starting to run....against Andre Carson? Yeah, I don't know either. Same for David O. Sit tight until the next go-round, lads. You'll come off more respectably.

Jon Elrod Abandons Ship?