iPOPA's Week in Review

Sorry to be a bit dormant this past week. Sometimes it’s "so many stories, so little time." Here’s your week in review with my quick “hits” plus a follow up on Vop Osili and "name combat."

Hawaii Special Election Victory Meaningless for GOP
Republican Charles Dijou won a three-way, Hawaiin special election for U.S. Congress against two Democrats. Dijou’s “victory” with forty percent of the vote was not surprising. The surprising part was RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s statement that the victory was significant because it was the “district where the President of the United States was born.” (Shhh! Don’t say that too loud, Mike. You might get ousted by the staggering percent of Republicans who still think the President wasn’t born in America!) Stelle undoubtedly wanted to add significance while he could since he knows they'll give this back in November, provided one of the D's clears the field.

Souder Said What?!?
Maybe I’m just burned out on politicians who lecture on morality while living below their own standards, but Mark Souder’s comments today don’t sit well with me at all. We all sin. But what galls is the idea he actually thought about sticking it out because “there was no evidence of an affair.” To know you're betraying the very ideals you claim to serve while clinging to the right to stay? That’s the greatest arrogance in this sordid affair.

GOP's Rivera Keeps Good Company
If anybody thinks the Democratic Party is not open to all comers, look at this photo of Republican, At-Large City-County Councillor (and generally amiable guy), Angel Rivera, at the Indiana Latino Democratic Pac’s Cinco De Maya membership drive. Inquiring minds want to know - did he cut a check?!?!

iPOPA Revisits "Name Combat" and Vop
Sometimes I revisit analysis after feedback from fellow politicos, friends, and fans. Today is one of those days. I’ve written about name combat, and I noted that candidates with “foreign” sounding names almost always fare poorly. But I also wrote that Vop Osili, whose name is nowhere near “Jim Smith,” would assist our party more than Tom McKenna as our Secretary of State candidate. Many have wondered about this seemingly contradictory conclusion. McKenna would clearly outperform Osili in name combat, right?

Absolutely, statewide. But here's the part that might depress you, Democrats, so I left it out. I'm not overly optimistic that either Tom or Vop can win in November. Indiana is still a Republican state, chocked full of what I call open-minded, Republican leaners (insert your joke here, Democrats). And the further you go down the ballot, the harder it is for a Democrat to win, absent staggering fundraising advantages or a very feeble Republican opponent.

To illustrate the point, consider this. Indiana hasn't seen a Democratic Secretary of State since Joe Hogsett left in 1994, an Auditor since Otis Cox in 1986, a Treasurer since Jack New left in February of 1979, and a Superintendent of Public Instruction since 1973! Democrats have done best electing Attorneys General with Pam Carter in 1992 and Jeff Modisett in 1996, but both of those campaigns lucked out to a degree in having opponents with some deficiencies Democrats exploited to draw stark contrasts.

Pam Carter had done securities enforcement, which we pitched as "white collar crime prosecution," and she was running against a criminal defense attorney, Tim Bookwalter, who had defended "rapists," "molesters," and "drug dealers." Jeff Modisett had been Marion County prosecutor while his opponent, Steve Carter, suffered from a charisma deficit and had never tried a case. "Not one." Does an AG try cases? Of course not. But this is politics, folks. Perception IS political reality.

Even Hogsett's 1990 Secretary of State win was unique because he was running against Bill Hudgnut, the Mayor of Indianapolis, the most despised city in the state for everybody who doesn't live here, and Hogsett branded Hudnut as a guy who "raised taxes 27 times." Plus, Hogsett harnessed the Evan Bayh mojo to raise over a million dollars. This year, we have my Wabash classmate, Charlie White, running as the Republican. (Could his name literally get any more vanilla for name combat purposes?) White's springboard to statewide office is his service on the Fishers Town Council. Unless there's some astonishing opposition research of which I'm not aware showing White has voted to raise some town tax over and over, this race will be very difficult.

If you start from the perspective that neither guy is likely to eke out a victory (and trust me when I tell you, I hope I'm wrong), all that's left is the question of who can do the most for the rest of the ticket. Because many African-Americans are dedicated, straight-ticket voters, that will be Vop. To do the most for the party, Vop doesn't even have to compete everywhere. He just has to drive up D turnout in high African-American areas. His core market will be people who might not vote but for their chance to elect Indiana's first African-American Secretary of State and maybe Governor.

One colleague said that any benefit from Vop on the ticket would be cumulative because in many places with high African-American populations, you already have other African-American candidates, for example, like in Indianapolis with Andre Carson. I disagree somewhat with respect to Carson. There's no doubt his a vote-getter, but his district only touches 445 of the 590 precincts that comprise Marion County. With respect to everywhere else, outside of Indianapolis, any African-American candidate would be down ticket, and they are not likely to have the money to afford the high media exposure that will motivate voters.

Is Vop a lost cause? Absolutely not. But to win, he would need to raise at least $1.5-$2 million to do a solid statewide TV buy, and he'd have to have an absolutely captivating bio ad. That's the counter to name combat deficiencies - favorable name ID (a/k/a "personal likeability"). If people know and like you, the name won't matter. The problem is that too many politicians with "funny" names never get to that level of recognition. Also, Vop would need to outspend White, and he'd need a scorched earth negative to blast a hole in White. While White's fundraising has been lackluster ($39,500 cash-on-hand as of March 31), Vop hasn't been on a million-dollar pace ($68,000 cash-on-hand on March 31 to McKenna's $96,000).

If Vop wins at the state convention, money will shake free as all the "smart money" people can quit hedging their bets and grow spines, but $1.5 million worth? That's a tall order. (Yes, it will take that much. Remember that Linda Pence raised a cool million and still lost to Greg Zoeller in 2008, which was clearly a favorable Democratic year). What is more likely is Vop having money in a range that makes media geared toward drumming up turnout more sensible than for persuasion.

On the subject of name combat, I knew Una Osili had finished 4th of 8 in her state convention delegate race, and every "African" name fared poorly (look here at state convention races), even in Marion County.

But I wondered how a "McKenna" might do in "name combat." The results from Hamilton County were encouraging...for Mary Ann McKenna. For Tom, not so much.

Take a look at this astonishing result for at-large Hamilton County state convention delegate, and see if you notice any of iPOPA's "name combat" rules in play.

3097 - 9.36% - Mary Ann Mckenna
2963 - 8.95% - Nancy Funk
2876 - 8.69% - Trish Whitcomb
2869 - 8.67% - Janet Rummel
2725 - 8.23% - Bonnie J. Kennelly
2681 - 8.10% - Rita D. Richard
2527 - 7.63% - Christopher A. Brown
2428 - 7.33% - Christian K. Renner
2344 - 7.08% - William A. "Bill" Latham
2289 - 6.91% - Alan D. Albright
2125 - 6.42% - Keith Clock
2092 - 6.32% - James Steven Bohner
2089 - 6.31% - David Snead

Did everyone pick up that the first six candidates are all women, and the last seven are all men?

Then I turned to Tom McKenna's race for state convention delegate, and, in a word, "Ouch."

1141 - 6.54% - Judy S. Goldblatt
1126 - 6.46% - Josephine E. "Jo" Latham
1118 - 6.41% - Mary Russell
1111 - 6.37% - Kathryn M. Raymore
1070 - 6.16% - Felicia D. Brown
1068 - 6.12% - Sonya P. Wendel
1062 - 6.09% - Caitlin C. Intermill
1047 - 6.00% - Monique D. Wise
1018 - 5.84% - Deborah Hejl
1015 - 5.82% - Tom Mckenna
907 - 5.20% - Patricia M. Toschlog
814 - 4.67% - Henry Winckler
803 - 4.60% - Cary A. Hudson
786 - 4.51% - Keith D. Boland
702 - 4.03% - Douglas M. Kinser
698 - 4.00% - Myron K. Richardson
674 - 3.87% - James W. Rosensteele
654 - 3.75% - Tom Decoster
620 - 3.56% - Edwin E. Russell

Tom McKenna, who has been telling Democrats he will beat Charlie White in the home county they share, finished tenth in a nineteen-person field of Democrats. You may say, "Yes, but isn't that just name combat being true to form, iPOPA? After all, unless Cary Hudson is a woman, you again have ladies in the top nine slots, then Tom, then another woman, followed by the rest of the fellas in the basement." But familiarity and likeability are supposed to trump name combat, which should tell us all something about McKenna's name ID in Hamilton County because there's no question about McKenna's likeability.

In short, I stand by my initial analysis: two likeable guys, two strenuous roads ahead.

iPOPA's Week in Review

Michael Steele: Your Fifteen Minutes As Republican National Chairman Are Running Out

All I can say is, "Wow." Apparently, when Republicans call for fiscal restraint, they don't mean with respect to the organization they run.

Hotline On Call's Reid Wilson reports that the Republican National Committee spent $340,000 on a three-day retreat to Hawaii in January of 2010.

The cost included $167,000 for accommodations at a "posh" Waikiki resort for all 168 members of the RNC, $90,000 more for the lodging of 32 RNC staffers and officials who made the trip, and the remainder from airline flights, travel, and meal reimbursements.

All I can say to Michael Steele and these 168 folks is thank you, thank you, thank you. You've made it much easier for Democrats to prevail in a combative national climate by ensuring none of your donors' dollars actually go to any candidates.

Michael Steele: Your Fifteen Minutes As Republican National Chairman Are Running Out

Socially Conservative GOP Activists Say Don't Give to RNC

Penny Nance, the head of Conservative Women for America, has gone after Michael Steele strongly, following an allegation that the RNC paid for a trip to Voyeur. From a CNN story yesterday:

"If the RNC wants to represent conservatives and the Republican Party, then they have to act like conservatives -- in a moral, fiscal and ethical manner," Nance said. "When RNC officials seem to think it wise to spend a grandmother's monthly donation on wooing the younger generation by taking them to a bondage-themed sex club instead of helping to elect a conservative, a real problem exists."

The same story reports that Tony Perkins, the head of the Family Research Council, also tells supporters not to give to the RNC.

Hey, johnny-come-lately, that's what I've been saying for the past two decades!

Socially Conservative GOP Activists Say Don't Give to RNC

A Donkey in Elephant's Clothing

"Know thyself, know they enemy" - Sun-Tzu, Chinese general and military strategist

The Friday before last, I had the (free) opportunity to attend the Lawrence Township Republican Club's Lincoln Day Dinner with my friends from the Hoosier Muslim PAC. Like a Nat Geo documentarian chronicling the activities of a foreign species in a strange land, I waded in, and it was more entertaining than Meerkat Manor. This is my dispatch.

The event was held at the Marriott at Keystone at the Crossing. When I entered the "check-in" chute, I was offered petitions to get Dan Coats and John Hosteller on the ballot. To be on the ballot for U.S. Senate, every candidate has to obtain the signature of 500 registered voters per congressional district. This is a preposterous exercise for sitting office holders like Evan Bayh, who got nearly 1.5 million votes in 2004, but who said laws are logical?

I enthusiastically signed both petitions, thinking at the time that if either became the candidate, Bayh would crush them. Polling showed Bayh leading Coats by 20 points in a head-to-head. I know already! I inadvertently helped a Republican! But how in the (expletive) was I supposed to know Bayh was going to drop out the following weekend? Also, I was trying not to get "made" so I could eavesdrop, which is why I signed while muttering, "Big business. Reaaaally big business."

Shortly thereafter, John Hostettler actually strolled by, and I reflexively yelled, "Congressman Hostettler!" He shook my hand and, because I really couldn't think of anything complimentary to say, I said nothing. Nonetheless, he continued to smile warmly well past the point of awkward silence. Were his beliefs not to the right of the Freeman Militia, he could really be somebody in the Republican Party, though he was shorter than he seems on TV. I'm confident that Bayh could have not only defeated him electorally, he could have also scored on him at will in the low post.

I noted immediately that, except for some delightfully polite greeters, the "default face" for Republicans is dour. Not a single person with whom I made eye contact smiled except for the ones who recognized me. Of course, those smiles had a Chesire cat-like, "what the (expletive) are you doing here" look, kind of like how you greet your in-laws when you weren't expecting them. This is not an exaggeration. It was strange because during the dinner speeches, there were hearty laughs; there were just no smiles for strangers.

The attendance for a township club dinner was insane. When I entered the ballroom, I counted 38 tables with ten seats each, and almost all of them were full. This might be attributable to the genius of having a huge dinner the night before slating (an idea I hope my party will employ). It's safe to say that with the platinum, gold, and silver sponsors paying $1,500, $1,000, and $400 respectively per table, Lawrence Township raked in a tidy sum.

Each table had a centerpiece bearing the name of a purported "titan of GOPism." For example, my group sat at the "Ronald Reagan" table. There was even an Arnold Schwarzenegger table, which was ironic because Lieutenant Governor Becky Skillman later zinged California when she joked it had "changed its name to South Oregon to avoid its creditors."

Being a party of generally wealthier people has advantages. Though you still have to pay $4.25 for a domestic beer (most Republicans opted for imports), you get better campaign "swag." Each attendee received an "Establishing Liberty" mini-book at their seat, along with a pile of literature from candidates seemingly as high as a Marion County phonebook.

I wondered how well the Republican Party's effort to "become diverse" under African-American RNC Chair Michael Steele was progressing at the grass-roots level. While I'm told it was better at slating, at this deal, the answer was not too well. I counted eight African-Americans and five Latinos. But here is the fascinating part. Three of the black folk were candidates for at-large city-county council, one was a candidate for seventh district Congress, and another was L.G. Skillman's executive assistant. Two of the Latinos were running against Andre Carson for 7th District congress.

That's a staggeringly disproportionate ratio of minority office seekers and higher ups to general members, which shows you that the GOP is not stupid about identity politics. It is so interested in proving its diversity, it might not be hyperbole to suggest that if you're in a minority group, you might be asked to run for office at your first township club meeting.

The initial speaker, whose name and title I don't recall, was mostly ignored as he battled a bad accoustic system. Grace was to be delivered by the gentleman who invited the Hoosier Muslim Pac. Unfortunately, he was out of the room, and the speaker "freestyled" a dinner prayer that ended with "In Jesus's name we pray," a strange thing to say in a room with a table populated by Muslims. (In fairness to the GOP, my colleague's friend gave a moving, unifying benediction at the end of the dinner sans the Jesus reference). But this disconnect is the GOP struggle - how to come to grips with the fact America isn't one thing without alienating a large contingent of its supporters who only want it to be one thing.

I don't remember the second speaker, but a lot of the crowd ignored him as well while chatting up ways to destroy President Obama and dining on delicious breaded chicken, asparagus, mashed potatoes, and killer cheesecake. Throughout dinner, two large screens showed quotes from Abraham Lincoln, my favorite one being: "What kills a skunk is the publicity it gives itself." Who knew Lincoln was such a PR genius?

Somebody introduced Marion County GOP Chair Tom John, and he got a surprisingly lukewarm round of applause, as if he was the guy who told Carl Brizzi to cozy up with Tim Durham and sell justice to donors. I left firmly convinced that county chair is second only to whale proctologist as the world's most distasteful and thankless job.

House Minority Leader Brian Bosma then spoke and pulled back the wizard's curtain on Todd Rokita's drive for redistricting reform when he noted that in some year I forgot (because it was Brian Bosma talking) that Hoosiers had cast 343,000 more votes for GOP house candidates than they had for D candidates. Bosma went on to say that it was only Democrat maps that let D's keep control of the Indiana House of Representatives. Translated into human speak, Bosma was saying that if House R's, a bi-partisan Commission, a computer logarithm, or monkeys with laser pointers were given control of the maps, the GOP would fare better. The painfully objective part of me knows this is true, but it also makes me decry claims that the GOP wants competition. If Rokita gets his way, we will have fewer competitive districts than we have now.

But I digress. Channeling his inner jedi, Bosma stated that we are engaged in a battle, not between the dark force and the light, but in a battle "for the future." Given that a good percentage of the GOP wants to take us back Doc Brown-style to the "good old days" of 1954, I couldn't tell if he misspoke.

Senator Merritt then delivered some remarks, none of which I remember except when he called Becky Skillman "Governor." While I know Emily Post on Elected Officials says you can afford this designation to an L.G., it is not required, so I'm sure this was done to get the GOP accustomed to hearing it before 2012.

L.G. Skillman gave the keynote address, and this was my first time really seeing her in action. She has notable poise and impeccable fashion sense. I quickly picked up on a speech "tic" where she elongates the first syllable of certain words, such as "fuuuuuuuture" and "huuuuuuuuundreds," but that just made her sound like your sweet New England auntie after a sherry too many.

While Skillman fastidiously adhered to her scripted remarks, she came across so much more intelligent than Sarah Palin. Of course, this might have been because Skillman's speech was on cue cards, not her hand.

Skillman's remarks were chocked with typical Washington liberal bashing. She got her strongest applause of the evening when she said, "Spending what you have is called cash. Spending what you don't have is called credit. Spending other people's money that they don't have is called Congress." (I thought that was called "working on Wall Street"). Apparently, nobody told L.G. Skillman that her boss spent a good deal of time in D.C., or I don't think she would have been so harsh on the capitol.

I couldn't deny that Skillman had the Lawrence Township GOP eating out of her hand. She lost her audience only once, when she said the Supreme Court had proven its independence that week, no doubt referring to Citizens United, an opinion that, ironically, would allow corporations to pump untold sums into things like state judicial elections, thereby ensuring that ONLY the federal judiciary would stay independent.

Skillman also had some constructive things to say about the Daniels administration, including that it has reduced government employment by 20 percent, that companies folding up in other states want to stop by Indiana for a brief stay before moving on to Singapore (okay, she didn't say that last part about moving on), and that we have $100 million in highway construction going on. Curiously, she admitted that a good portion of those funds came from federal stimulus money. I can only assume someone jammed an index card into her speech as a practial joke since the Governor would never take federal dollars while spending so much time griping about them.

While I would only give L.G. Skillman a two for originality, she earned a nine for lip-syncing. She will be formidable in 2012, though I do not believe she'll defeat Governor Bayh.

Then the moment I had waited for all night came finally arrived....the speech by Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard. The only problem was he wasn't there. I didn't hear why, but in lieu of a speech, we got to view what must be Greg Ballard's first mayoral TV ad.

For evoking emotion, it was a thing of beauty. I didn't get it word for word, but I got some of it....

"It began as a grass roots movement...

"Fed up with government (yada yada) people who had had enough..."

"....found their voice with Greg Ballard...."

"It was the biggest political upset in Indiana history...."

"Since that night...what has it meant for our city?"

The following phrases (not in order) then popped on the screen....

"Better Ethics," "Mayor Takes Control of IMPD," "Crimes Rates Down," "Charter School Expansion," "Innovative Ideas," "Honestly Balanced Budgets," and "New Wishard Hospital."

As these phrases jumped across the screen, the ad offered pristine depictions of every feel-good, nostalgia-inducing visual Indianapolis has to offer - Victory Field, the canal, Lucas Oil, Conseco, Circle Center Mall, and Monument Circle among many others. What does Greg Ballard have to do with any of these? Absolutely nothing. But rule number one in advertising is create good feelings, then throw your picture into the mix so viewers have a Pavlovian response the next time they see the feel-good images.

The phrase that shocked me the most was "crime rates down." Anybody who reads the Star or watches TV knows that murders might be down, but shootings sure aren't. And I'm just not sure how much credit you can take for reducing homicides when it's easier to attribute the reduction to poor marksmanship and the incredible work of Wishard trauma in keeping gunshot victims alive. (Of course, this would explain the Mayor's strong support of Wishard - it helped him keep the city's death toll down).

After the ad concluded, Bosma introduced every elected official and candidate for anything at any level. During this time, I read War & Peace on my cell phone. Twice. Bosma even joked, "Anybody who is NOT running for something stand up. Maybe that will be easier."

Let this be said about the GOP. What it fails to offer in constructive solutions, it makes up for by sheer number of candidates vying for the right to not offer them. And it knows how to fill a party hall.

A Donkey in Elephant's Clothing