The tea party has been cancelled. Well, at least in Indiana, where the only thing that kept the Republican Party from “shaking up Washington” last night was self-imploding ambition and arrogance.
In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate race, Dan Coats limped across the finish line with just under 40%, while Indiana state senator Marlin “I’m from a farm” Stutzman finished with 29%, former Congressman John "keep a nuke in your garage" Hostettler got 22%, and newbies Don Bates, Jr. and Richard "over my dead body" Behney picked up 4.5% and 4.2% respectively.
Hostettler was directly critical of Coats’ voting record on guns and "radical" Supreme Court Justices. Stutzman was as critical, though he used proxies to essentially say Coats was conservativism’s aged, Benedict Arnold. Had either Hostettler or Stutzman stepped aside, I am reasonably confident Dan Coats would not be the GOP candidate. (To the GOP voters, I say, “Thank you” for giving my party the opponent who ensures that the NRA will endorse Democrat Brad Ellsworth).
In the GOP’s 5th district free-for-all, Congressman Dan Burton rebuffed six opponents with an 29.7%, a jaw-droppingly anemic number for an incumbent. Luke Messer got 27.6%, repeat candidate John McGoff got 18.8%, Mike Murphy got 8.9%, and Brose “Who am I, and Why Am I Here” McVey got 8.5%.
In this one, I know that if any of Burton's opponents had stepped aside, Burton would not have to miss congressional votes to play golf any more.
Each Burton opponent publicly said he needed to step aside, but not one could bring himself to “take one for the team.” By hanging on to the bitter end, each said, “I’m more important than moving our party forward.” I assure you they all concluded that if Burton won, they'd have a chance to take his place in the future, but if one of the other guys won, they'd kiss the seat goodbye for another thirty years.
For Messer, ambition worked. By amassing 27.6%, he put himself at the front of the cue to fill the seat if Burton retires, or if he still shows weak public support in two years (he will). Messer's strong showing will allow him to chisel off money and support from the others by saying, “Which one of us is most likely to win this thing? Look at the history.” In other words, even though arrogance kept Messer in, it’s at least understandable. Same with McGoff, who actually put his arrogance on display by talking about “earning” the right to serve, as if a credible but losing campaign makes him best qualified to serve in Congress.
But what about Mike Murphy and Brose McVey, the dynamic duo of spoilerism? I know they have friends because they each got over 9,000 votes. Why didn't anybody tell them they would become the political equivalent of the insanely off-key guys from the first week of American Idol? Were I in the GOP (shudder) and in the 5th District, I’d serve them both potato salad that I had sitting in the sun for a day or two at the next GOP club meeting. Dan Burton needs to send them free subscriptions of American Rifleman because they were his biggest contributors.
In sum, the GOP said for months that its party needed a new direction, but not one of its ballot leaders made the sacrifice necessary to deliver it.
Coming shortly....
What Tuesday certainly says about party strength in Marion County....
What Tuesday arguably says about prejudice in Indiana
Ahhhh! Time to wake up and smell the democracy! In Marion County, both parties have intriguing matchups that will test their organizational strength.
On the Republican side, Bart McAtee is running for sheriff against the party's slated candidate, Dennis Fishburn, a guy who until the party stalwarts started chipping in, had raised only slightly above the square root of zero. On April 9, 2010, however, Fishburn reported raising $54,000 in the quarter with $24,000 cash on hand (c-o-h).
Fishburn's report makes for interesting reading. On the upside, every living Hoosier with the name Fishburn donated, so at least you know the family reunions are cordial. Unfortunately, Indiana law requires candidates to identify by name and address every donor who gives $100 or more, and Team Fishburn botched up that operation. There are several names who break the reporting threshold but no address is provided. (For example, Dave Young and Randall Elliott gave $700 and $500 respectively, and we have absolutely no information about them. But my personal favorite entry (and I am not making this up) reads simply:
Paul "Ponytail" Paul
Nice to know a potential candidate for sheriff is getting cash from guys with hitman nicknames.
Also, on April 9, 2010, Fishburn actually reports a total of eleven donations of $200 each from “anonymouses” (if that’s the plural). Oh, Dennie! Your treasurer screwed the pooch, my friend. You were obviously trying to keep these donors below the radar, but unfortunately, they can only donate up to $99 to do that. Yes, you filed an amended report claiming that it was just $2,700 in "unitemized cash," but we already know you're lying because you broke them down into $200 increments on the initial report. (I'm guessing these are guys working for McAtee now who can't stand him?)
For his part, McAtee has been a money horse. He started the quarter with $89,000, and raised another $76,000, and he spent it all by 4-9-2010 securing radio time and paying his media consultants well in advance. Then in the eleven days after the 4-9 deadline, he filed 6 supplemental reports for large donations, pulling in a total of $26,500.
McAtee's radio ad, which has been in heavy rotation on WXNT shows like Glen Beck, is typical, tough guy hockum that revs up the law and order crowd. In the ad, McAtee states that he will never release a prisoner without a court order..."even if they have to sleep in my office." Great idea! Maybe if you can also teach them some computer skills, they can go into the workforce upon release.
This is a test for the Marion County GOP because last go round, McAtee (gasp) endorsed Democrat Frank Anderson and, according to a wickedly funny mailer sent out by the GOP, finagled almost $500,000 worth of McAtees onto Anderson's payroll. If McAtee prevails, it will tell you pretty conclusively that either Republicans think Frank Anderson is a pretty good sheriff or Marion County GOP party muscle is more atrophied than Abe Vigoda's biceps. I vote for A & B.
The Democrats face a similar showdown in their contests for sheriff and prosecutor. In the Sheriff's race, slated Democrat Colonel John Layton has been going like gangbusters on the money chase with $133,000 c-o-h after the April 9 deadline, and he has cut his own "I'm a general bad(expletive)" law enforcement ad:
While most people in party circles (myself included) are impressed with Mark Brown, Layton seems a more natural fit as a guy who had 35 years experience in the sheriff's office and a leadership role under Anderson's entire tenure. (Brown is a 24-year veteran of IPD).
The most bizarre aspect of this contest, though, has been the blowback some African-American leaders, including Congressman Andre Carson, have received for supporting Layton, a caucasian, over Brown, an African-American. This nicely cements my belief that black folk bear race burdens white people will never have. When I made my decision to support Carson over David Orentlicher, nobody white said anything, even in a whisper. Ironically, some African-American leaders in the party wanted David O.'s head on a plate because he ignored the slating decision and ran against Carson in the primary. The idea that now some of these same folks are upset because the Congressman is respecting the slate is the epitome of crazy. (You do you, Congressman. I, and a multitude of others, have your back!).
In the prosecutor's race, Marion County Assessor Greg Bowes has released a barrage of Youtube ads. Each starts with some catchy Muzak playing while Bowes' logo is displayed on top a background of a blurred, undulating flag (think being really drunk at a VFW hall). Then a title screen appears, which states, "Greg Bowes Talks About...(Justice)(Freedom)(The Constitution)(Leadership)(Hard Work)(Public Officials & White Collar Crime)(Apple Pie).
Okay, I made up the thing about Apple pie, but you get my point. When you use these kind of topics, you have to expect a degree of schmaltz and some platitudes, and Bowes does not disappoint.
Of course, the ad format of a candidate talking to an unseen person is genius, which is why this approach is commonly employed by service industries. First, you don't suffer the bad acting that you normally get in ads where a candidate is looking straight into the camera. Second, it's somehow easier psychologically to accept that Bowes isn't trying to con you because, even though we all know his ads are made for public consumption, we're more like tourists observing than part of the conversation.
The problem is that unless you have Michael Bloomberg money, there's no way you can get these ads anywhere except on Youtube or on your website. Each of Bowes' segments are between 90-120 seconds in length, and most local campaigns are lucky if they can do two or three 30-second ads during the entire campaign. Will people who see these like Bowes? Probably, but those hundred people will also roll their eyes because only half of the segments have dairy-free "scripts." You can see them all here.
Bowes' opponent, Terry Curry, held a dominant fundraising lead over Bowes on April 9, and more importantly, has been the beneficiary of a phone banking program, proving that slating has its benefits. If both Curry and Layton carry the day as expected, even with inferior ballot placement in both cases, it will show the Marion County Democratic Party is stretching its legs.
On the GOP national side, the GOP's day, I fear, will come to epitomize the phrase more equal less. Dan Coats is expected to win the five-way fight for the GOP nomination, but not because he's wowed anybody, rather because nobody else in the fiel can get a higher plurality. The same thing will likely be true in Dan Burton's Congressional seat. Sigh.
(Enter CARNIE BARKER onto pier, speaking with a bullhorn):
“…gather around, friends, and witness the amazing legerdemain (a/k/a “sleight of hand”) of the Great Ballardo, a political magician who pulls money from an empty hat.”
Of course, magic isn’t real, but I fear we’ll soon all be the suckers born every minute of whom P.T. Barnum spoke if Mayor Greg Ballard achieves his two-step skullduggery with the city's water transfer and road repair bond issue.
To proponents of these deals, I ask, "Can't you see our future is the hat, and these deasl are what makes it empty? Or do you just not care because you'll profit from it? (But more on that later).
For months, Indianapolis’ illusionist-in-chief has touted the sale of the city water and wastewater facilities to Citizens Gas as a one-stop, $425 million bonanza of smaller rate increases (a/k/a "backdoor tax increases"), roads, bridges, and sidewalks. That’s a complete distortion, but fortunately, now that the Indianapolis Star’s Francesca Jarosz has seen the Mayor's misdirection, she won't let him dart out of the spotlight of public scrutiny.
Here’s the real deal, folks. City-County Councillor Mike Speedy has introduced two resolutions. The first is for the transfer of the water and wastewater facilities to Citizens Gas, a deal plagued with problems but not the subject of this post. The second is for the issuance the aforementioned bonds, a notion crammed into the City’s Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) though it has absolutely no connection to the Cit Gas deal.
Why do I say there is no connection? Because Mayor Ballard’s chief-of-staff, Chris Cotterill, said so.
From the Star:
[Cotterill] said the city can collect the $140 million whether or not the Citizens sale is approved. That money comes from annual payments made from the sewer utility in place of taxes, and because the sewer system is appreciating in value, the city is increasing the annual payments and capturing them upfront.
Why would Ballard combine the two? PR. He wants the bigger number.
But let me dissect something for you because this is critical.
“capturing them upfront….”
That phrase – “capturing them upfront” – makes me chuckle. It sounds like the Mayor took a butterfly net and, through his NatGeo-acquired tracking skills, snagged the rare specious, Taxpayerus Chumpus.
Every time you hear “captured them upfront,” your mind should automatically think, “unleashed your financial future into the wild to be devoured."
You see, there is a schedule of payments in lieu of taxes (PILOT) to be made to the City of Indianapolis through 2039 by either the current management of the water/wastewater system or Citizens Gas (Exhibit E of the Memorandum of Understanding), and folks, it's clearly more than $140 million, even over a ten-year span. I can only assume, therefore, that this graph of what WILL be paid already includes the additional amount expected from capital spending. But there's absolutely no explanation on that point. Did the Mayor just pull this $140 million out of a hat, too?
Here is something else fascinating I just saw in the MOU that I missed before:
The City has projected that given the significant capital spending associated with the Wastewater system, the annual payment in lieu of taxes will increase in accordance with law. Accordingly, the City intends to issue debt secured by the PILOT ("PILOT Bonds")prior to the time a definitive agreement may be reached by the parties.
Isn't that the strangest (and most arrogant) thing? The MOU actually foretells the timetable for issuing the bonds vis-a-vis the water company transfer. Were I a city-county councillor, that might rub me the wrong way.
But getting back to the philosophical issue, instead of living within the City’s means and collecting the PILOT dollars year-to-year, the Mayor is going to take a loan against all of these future payments so that he can have and spend all of the money right now. This is why I keep telling you all it’s a payday loan scam.
Can you imagine pulling this same idea with our local option income tax (LOIT)? I don’t have the precise figures on how much that 1.62% LOIT brings in annually, but say I'm mayor, and I say, "Hey, we know for a fact we're usually around $200 million. What if we go find a private company that will give us $100 million now for the next ten years instead? This is basically what we're looking at, folks.
You WILL pay for every dollar of this in the form of higher sewer rates, but guess what? When it comes time to hold the guy who hoisted this onto you accountable, he'll be out of office traveling the globe with his wife. And therein lies the diabolical genius of the Mayor's plan. He'll sell us all on how we need to take political decisions out of politicians' hands because they won't "do the right thing" and ask for tax increases when they're needed, but he'll make certain whoever follows in his shoes has to do exactly that by taking away what would otherwise be general fund revenues for the City.
Also, while I don't want to get conspiratorial on anybody, if you have a Cit Gas board comprised of the Indy business elite, might it be a stretch to envision a Board deciding to press as hard as possible for rate increases during the term of a progressive mayor they want to make a one-termer? I say this because non-profits are some of the most "political" orgnaizations in existence, and a quarter of the citizenry will still try to blame the Mayor for every rate hike, even though they're told repeatedly it wasn't his/her decision, and the rest will just have some Carteresque malaise that colors the rest of the voters' opinions about life in the big city under Mayor x/y.
Coming soon....what political insiders are supporting this deal and why
